Reflections on Central Banking Alan Greenpsan, Jackson Hole,
Wyoming, August 26, 2005
In speaking on increasing asset values, Greenpsan states, "Such an
increase in market value is too often viewed by market participants as
structural and permanent. But what they perceive as newly abundant
liquidity can readily disappear." [italics mine]
3rd Quarter, 2005 Derivatives Report Office of Comptroller of the
Currency
The size of the numbers in this report are hard to grasp. For contrast and
comparison, you should review other banking and government
reports on areas that are in the trillion dollar range. The charts, beginning
on page six, tell quite a story.
Disclaimer: There is no branch of the US Government that has anything to do with
this website. The information is purely for educational purposes. The reader is
encouraged to investigate other writings on this topic.
The Home Price Outlook, May 2005 by Thomas Lawler, SVP
Risk Policy Fannie Mae
For those who question whether there is a housing bubble, reading this
report from Fannie Mae should prove enlightening. Pay specific attention
to the growth in the size of the ARMs in 2004. The charts on pages 25 and
30 speak volumes. This cannot keep going on much longer.
2004 Report to the Nation on Occupational Fraud and Abuse,
Association of Certified Fraud Examiners
"Participant’s in this study, anti-fraud specialist with a median of 16 years’
experience in the fraud examination field, estimate that the typical U.S.
organization loses 6% of its annual revenue to fraud. Applied to the U.S.
Gross Domestic Product for 2003, this translates to approximately $660
billion in losses.”
John Williams Shadow Government Statistics
Series Introduction.2004
Employment and Unemployment.2004
Gross Domestic Product.2004
Consumer Price Index.2004
Federal Deficit Reality.2004
We all receive tons of data from Washington. Most of us do not know how
these numbers have been altered over the years and what impact these
alterations have in the real world of finance. Doug Gillespie and John
Williams have been gracious enough to let me post these four reports.
One can learn more about their research at www.shadowstats.com
Crestmont Research - 2006 Historical Data on Stock Cycles
20 Year Stock Cycles
Price/Earnings ratios tell a great deal about future potential future market
returns.
Stock Market Matrix
After looking at the returns over every conceivable period from 1900 to
2006, one sees why the Great Bull Market of the 80's and 90's was so
spectacular. It also becomes very apparent that double digit returns
are anything but, "business as usual".
Secular Bull & Bear Markets
Notice the extreme differences in market returns. Ed Easterling has
graciously allowed us to present these reports. One can learn more about
Easterling's research at www.crestmontresearch.com
Fiscal and Generational Imbalances: New Budget Measures and New
Budget Priorities. A Policy Discussion Paper produced by the Federal
Reserve Board of Cleveland, December 2003. Jagadeesh Gohkale and
Kent Smetters
This report addresses the shortfalls facing Social Security. I encourage
the reader to pay particular attention to the solutions these two gentlemen
propose. I found the overview in the first 6 pages especially enlightening.
When Bubbles Burst Chapter 2, IMF Report, 2003
This excellent piece leaves little doubt about the severity of the impact that
awaits the markets and the economy once the real estate bubble burst. If
you are pressed for time, pages 65, 72-74 are key.
The Elliott Wave Theorist: Can the Fed Stop Deflation,
Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave International, April 2002
"A defensive credit market can scuttle the Fed's efforts to get lenders and
borrowers to agree to transact at all, much less at some desired target
rate. If people and corporations are unwilling to borrow or unable to
finance debt, and if banks and investors are disinclined to lend, central
banks cannot force them to do so. During deflation, they cannot even
induce them to do so with a zero interest rate."
Visit Elliott Wave International's Club EWI for more free resources,
including reports, tutorials, and videos.
Gold and Economic Freedom excerpt by Alan Greenspan from
Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal (1966) Ayn Rand
Mr. Greenspan appears to have forgotten his roots. If any of us need to be
convinced that we are not moving in the right direction, just read his 1966
comments about what caused the Great Depression.
The Inefficient Frontier
During the 1990's, efficient frontier models detailed how much risk
investors should assume for a particular level of return. Someone forgot
to mention that depending on the timeframe, the results could vary
substantially.
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